Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.332134 0.376270 0.424157 0.479989 0.543320 0.612955 0.695369
2025-10-12 0.266746 0.325101 0.393208 0.478631 0.583017 0.706576 0.864171
2025-10-19 0.221663 0.288482 0.371754 0.483307 0.629115 0.813628 1.065528
2025-10-26 0.189913 0.262591 0.358819 0.495835 0.686468 0.943161 1.316549
2025-11-02 0.155479 0.227310 0.327877 0.479376 0.702711 1.021272 1.512817
2025-11-09 0.126487 0.194723 0.295328 0.455033 0.703480 1.077410 1.687097
2025-11-16 0.107133 0.173088 0.275154 0.445337 0.723815 1.164671 1.921869
2025-11-23 0.091197 0.154138 0.256046 0.433966 0.739246 1.246027 2.160151
2025-11-30 0.082048 0.144734 0.250678 0.443921 0.790806 1.393320 2.532212
2025-12-07 0.070222 0.128890 0.232076 0.428109 0.795131 1.460128 2.773382
2025-12-14 0.061605 0.117412 0.219353 0.420670 0.812997 1.553055 3.076965
2025-12-21 0.054254 0.107154 0.207312 0.412509 0.827915 1.642103 3.386815
2025-12-28 0.050151 0.102755 0.206096 0.425998 0.889030 1.833244 3.941897
2026-01-04 0.045038 0.095569 0.198404 0.425317 0.921464 1.972405 4.414445
2026-01-11 0.041072 0.090163 0.193543 0.429843 0.965795 2.143837 4.989237
2026-01-18 0.038153 0.086562 0.191950 0.441242 1.027207 2.362489 5.711952
2026-01-25 0.033598 0.078624 0.179755 0.426822 1.027408 2.443367 6.124329
2026-02-01 0.029168 0.070303 0.165491 0.405325 1.007395 2.473879 6.419110
2026-02-08 0.026149 0.064878 0.157154 0.396800 1.017722 2.579392 6.924952
2026-02-15 0.023413 0.059732 0.148740 0.386755 1.022587 2.672127 7.414802
2026-02-22 0.022009 0.057731 0.147766 0.395657 1.078388 2.905360 8.333012
2026-03-01 0.019613 0.052799 0.138666 0.381626 1.070184 2.967094 8.778495
2026-03-08 0.017833 0.049245 0.132642 0.375033 1.081562 3.084487 9.409518